NinjaTrader Strategies - Mechanical Trading General Discussions - Ask general questions, post charts and videos - backtesting, optmisation and strategy anlyasis
23/06/2010 18:19:25
Tom Leeson
Administrator
Posts: 661
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why believe anyone who is selling something...
This system made 15K per month - ok great so did the MT2 for 2 months solid.... but the month before that it might have lost 2K....hmmmmm wold that scare you?
maybe it will do that too next month?
So you do really need in to have evidence...
1 proof it is not curve fitted
2 for psychological reasons - staying power with a system
Beware the best case scenario.... curve fitting
you need 2 to 3 years of data for the parameter set they used.... plus here’s the good bit another 20 reports which show the results if they just moved a param 3 units to the left and right...
Why?
It's called a range.. .we need to see that a range close the one they are using is still viable or not....
if it is not then those results you are looking at are curve fitted to be only effective in the exiting market conditions... that’s great but what if the market changes... then you loose...
Stick with the system
You need proof so if the system goes into a drawdown period you can understand it and be mentally prepared for it
MicroTrends: there is a tendency for a vendor to have multiple systems - some such as a trend following system on the GBPUSD will be absolutely creaming it - so they advertise it now - but then you sign up and use it just as the market becomes narrow and range bound choppy and you get spanked - at that point i can drag out the Mean Reversion trader and say wow look at this....
edited by tom on 23/06/2010
edited by forum on 02/09/2010
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MicroTrends tom
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